Middlebury, Vermont 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

217
FXUS61 KBTV 191110
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
710 AM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 205 AM EDT Thursday...

No significant changes were made to the ongoing forecast with
temperatures warming into the weekend and multiple quick moving
systems moving through the region by early next week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 205 AM EDT Thursday...

1. Temperatures will be trending warmer today through the
weekend with highs running around to slightly warmer than seasonal
averages as a weak system brings some chances of elevation
dependent rain and snow shower this evening.

2. A more potent clipper style system will move through Friday
and much of Saturday bringing better chances of rain and higher
elevation snowfall.

3. Another storm system expected to bring snow, rain and wind
to the North Country Sunday into Monday.

4. Drier with below normal temperatures expected much of next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 205 AM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Southerly flow will allow for some moderate warm air
advection and breezes today ahead of a weakening clipper-type
system. With zonal flow aloft and upper level support diminishing as
the wave approaches, a clipper-type system will bring some chances
of rain and snow this evening into the overnight hours. Warm air
advection and a modest pressure gradient will support highs in the
upper 30s to low 40s and some gusts generally ranging 15 to 25 mph
this afternoon. Lower elevations this evening will remain mostly
rain with totals amounting only to a few hundredths while higher
elevations see some snow showers and light accumulations generally
less than one inch. Highest elevations could see a couple of inches
of snow.

KEY MESSAGE 2: The next clipper type system will move through the
region Friday into Saturday. Decent dynamics will support this
system in the lower level, but a lack of a strong jet maximum
coupled with system speed will severely limit any impacts. QPF will
be limited to less than 0.5" favoring the Adirondacks and
central/southern Vermont based on model consensus for trajectory.
High elevations could make out well in terms of snowfall with
potential accumulations up to 6 inches. However, lower elevations
will likely remain warmer favoring rainfall in lower amounts
generally limited to 0.25" or less. System trajectory could shift
over the next day or so resulting in subtle shifts in precipitation
amounts.

KEY MESSAGE 3: A warm front is expected to lift north across Vermont
and northern New York on Sunday which will likely lead to a brief
period of snow changing over to rain as the front lifts north. This
could lead to a quick dusting to an inch of snow accumulation
followed by warming temperatures which will quickly eat away at the
recently fallen snowfall. A cold front is expected to rapidly follow
in the wake of the warm front with a period to moderate to locally
heavy rainfall possible. Deterministic guidance has shifted slightly
north in the latest model runs. This has resulted in a warmer
solution with more rainfall and less snowfall. The overall low track
Sunday night into Monday will end up being key to precipitation type
and we expect models to fluctuate back and forth over the next few
days. The models seem a little aggressive with QPF (1-1.5" Sunday
through Monday) and they seem to be latching onto impressive
frontogenesis values (huge thermal gradient setting up across our
CWA), However, the lack of a closed low pressure center at either
700 mb or 500 mb could hurt as the dynamics aren`t anything overly
impressive and could allow for the system to roll through faster
than currently forecasted. Nevertheless, the system this weekend
into early next week could bring winds of 30-45 mph, heavy rain, and
periods of snow on the front and back end of the system. More on
this system in the coming days.

KEY MESSAGE 4: High pressure will build across the North Country and
northern New York on Tuesday in the wake of the cold front. As the
Climate Prediction Center has been forecasting, a period of below
normal temperatures and below normal precipitation looks likely as
deep layer ridging appears to establish itself across the region
through at least the middle of next week; if not all of next week.
Temperatures currently look to run around 5-7 degrees below normal
for next week with highs in the mid 30s to lower 40s and lows in the
teens and 20s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 12Z Friday...Surface high pressure will result in VFR
conditions with light terrain driven winds under 5 knots through
12-16z Thursday. As the next weak areas of low pressure and
associated warm front approach our TAF sites clouds will
increase and lower on Thursday with some MVFR cigs possible at
MSS/SLK and EFK after 18z, along with a few light rain or snow
showers. Winds will increase from the south/southwest at 5 to 10
knots with localized gusts up to 20 knots. Some MVFR CIGs will
be possible 22-04Z in the Champlain Valley before CIGs flow
becomes less blocked over the Greens allowing for some low level
clouds to dissipate.

Outlook...

Friday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance
SHSN.
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Chance SHSN.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN,
Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHSN.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance
SHSN.
Sunday Night: Mainly IFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Monday: MVFR. Chance SHSN, Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if you
observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational
forecast.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Boyd
DISCUSSION...Boyd/Clay
AVIATION...Boyd/Clay
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV